December 3, 2008

RealityMarkets.com For Sale

We have listed RealityMarkets.com for sale on ebay.

November 24, 2008

Exploring Strategic Options

Following a comprehensive review of our web holdings, we have announced our decision to explore potential strategic options with regards to RealityMarkets.com designed to best enhance value for our customers. Although we cannot predict when, or if, any specific transaction will occur, we remain committed to operating RealityMarkets.com until a suitable option can be identified.

About Reality Markets: Reality Markets is a prediction market trading platform. Members are able to trade on events markets that they are passionate and opinionated about. By aggregating the predictions of the diverse community of participants, Reality Markets and its members generate accurate predictive information on the likelihood of specific events occurring.

September 8, 2008

DRM Free iTunes Trading Ahead of Apple Event

There was some interesting volume and purchases today of the Universal Music Group DRM Free Music stock. Tomorrow Apple is holding a special event that is expected to focus largely on iTunes and iPods. A harbinger of things to come?

August 26, 2008

New Stocks

I'll be putting up some new stocks tomorrow.

June 26, 2008

Stock Sorter

I've added a stock sorter to the Stock Listing Page. Check it out and let me know if you want any more sort categories or improvements.

June 11, 2008

Prizes Are Back

tuesday.pngFor those that have been trading for a while you'll remember I used to do prizes on RealityMarkets and that I've also been saying for a while that prizes would be returning. They are back today. Right now I am giving away 3, $10 gift certificates to iTunes to the top 3 traders from the last 14 days as of the trading close on Tuesday. The list is attached.

Going forward I hope to do smaller prizes to more people more frequently than just one large prize every few months. I also want to give prizes away for different categories, ie most trades, biggest loser, most referrals, etc. At this point I'm not quite sure if I am going to do formal contests or just do random dates.

Let me know what you think about contest dates and anything else.

June 10, 2008

Some Site Changes

I've updated the index names in the navigation menu while still preserving the longer name when you view the index. I'm hoping this improves the navigation and makes it easier to find things at a glance. Let me know what you think.

I've also changed around some html so if anything looks weird let me know.

Thanks.

June 4, 2008

More On Intrade And Reality Markets

I published a post on Midas Oracle that has some more details on our relationship with Intrade. Here is an excerpt:

On Wednesday, RealityMarkets.com and Intrade announced a collaboration agreement, the center of which was the announcement of Standard Markets. The press release to the announcement is linked below but I wanted to use this post to talk a little bit more about what was behind the collaboration.

The rest is here: Reality Markets and InTrade announce collaboration

May 28, 2008

Reality Markets and Intrade Announce Collaboration

DUBLIN/PARK CITY, May 28, 2008 -- Intrade and Reality Markets announced today that they have reached an understanding to explore areas of collaboration that would mutually benefit the memberships of both prediction market platforms and prediction market users generally.

These include:

  • The adoption of a standardized event market specifications starting with Reality Markets listing Intrade markets and prices on its platform
  • Cooperation in developing future event market categories and contracts
  • Cooperation in exploring the feasibility of each exchange offering the other's markets and market data.

Intrade CEO John Delaney said, "We are very pleased to pursue areas of common interest with Reality Markets and all prediction market platform operators.  For prediction markets to achieve their full potential, moving closer to a seamless marketplace will become ever more important to market participants.  We look forward to working with Reality Markets and other platform operators to expand the availability of standardized markets and specifications to prediction market users."
 
Brad Stewart, Chief Executive Officer of Reality Markets said "Intrade is considered the leading prediction market platform and we are very pleased to co-operate with them.  By adopting a common event market specification we will make it easier for users of prediction markets to observe arbitrage opportunities, and move between platforms to exploit these opportunities and improve the quality of the information."
 
About Intrade: Intrade is the worlds leading prediction market platform.  Members trade on unique markets and by so doing generate information on the likelihood of the underlying event occurring. Intrade and the predictive information generated by its members have been featured on ABC, CNBC, FOX, CNN, Bloomberg, Fortune & others.   Subscribe to Intrade News on RSS: http://www.intrade.com/news/newsRss.xml
 
Contact: John Delaney, CEO, Intrade
Telephone: 011 353 1 6200 300
Email: john.delaney@intrade.com
www.intrade.com

About Reality Markets: Reality Markets is a prediction market trading platform.  Members are able to trade on events markets that they are passionate and opinionated about.  By aggregating the predictions of the diverse community of participants, Reality Markets and its members generate accurate predictive information on the likelihood of specific events occurring.  
 
Contact: Brad Stewart, CEO, Reality Markets
Telephone: 435-602-9142
Email: brad@realitymarkets.com
www.realitymarkets.com
 
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May 27, 2008

Taking Our Lumps: American Idol Prediction

I was reminded today by the Freakonomics Blog on the New York Times that we botched the American Idol Prediction. While our chart shows eventually we had David Cook as the winner, it was primarily because of a few last second trades that went in before we could pause the market.

So, what went wrong? As someone that can see the trades that occurred and the activity on the contracts, the biggest thing that jumps out is the lack of volume and activity. In order for a market to trade efficiently they need to be liquid and there needs to be an adequate amount of traders in that market.

graph_multi.pngRegardless, I think there is still important information that can be learned from this market. While David Archuletta was in the lead for nearly the entire series, David Cook started making steady gains against him around the 5th of May.

Additionally it's important to remember prediction markets aren't guaranteeing someone will win if they have the highest price, merely stating a probability. The day before the final show David Archuletta had dropped down to 80% which means there was still a 20% chance he would lose.

Combine that with the fact that Archuletta's lead was continuously decreasing the last couple weeks and I think you can make an argument that there is still value in the information the market provides.

Parts of this post appeared in the comments section of the Freakonomics Blog